Rent or buy a condo in the GTA? The October 2026 numbers

by Alex Trokoz

Updated monthly from TRREB data. Prices and rents are medians for condo apartments sold and leased from August 1 to October 31, 2026, compared size for size.

A question I hear from people renting a condo: "Should I just buy?" Many answers compare a mortgage payment with rent, which mixes up two things: part of every mortgage payment is savings, and a typical sold condo is not the same size as a typical rental. So here is the comparison done properly: the same size of condo, bought or rented, in the same area, counting the equity you build as yours.

$636,554

Average GTA condo price, October 2026. Back to the October 2020 level ($635,365), after rising 32% to the March 2022 peak and falling 24% since.

$2,273

Average GTA one-bedroom condo rent, Q2 2026 (TRREB rental report), down 2.3% from a year earlier. Two-bedroom: $3,013, down 1.7%.

Prices are back to 2020 levels. Rents fell less.

The average GTA condo sold for $636,554 in October 2026. In October 2020 it was $635,365. That is not six flat years: prices rose 32% to the March 2022 peak, then fell 24%. Rents have eased much less: the average one-bedroom is $2,273, about 2% lower than a year ago. Since October 2024, condo prices are down about 11% and one-bedroom rents about 7%. The gap between owning and renting got smaller. Here is how small, area by area.

Buying vs. renting, size for size

Typical price and rent are the medians for each size and area. Assumptions: 20% down, a 5-year fixed rate of 4.85%, 25-year amortization, a 5-year stay, condo fees of $500 / $650 / $850 a month for 1 / 2 / 3 bedrooms, property tax at each city's 2026 rate on an estimated assessed value of 70% of the price, $30 a month insurance, land transfer tax and $2,000 in legal fees. You can change every one of these in the calculator.

Area	Size	Typical price	Typical rent	All-in monthly cost	Out of pocket vs. rent	Real extra cost*	Price rise needed per year**
Toronto	1-bed	$480,888	$2,350	$2,950	$600	$367	2.1%
Toronto	2-bed	$640,000	$3,050	$3,901	$851	$568	2.2%
Toronto	3-bed	$680,000	$3,800	$4,302	$502	$207	1.5%
York	1-bed	$455,000	$2,250	$2,814	$564	$245	1.8%
York	2-bed	$619,000	$2,800	$3,787	$987	$563	2.3%
Peel	1-bed	$395,999	$2,250	$2,616	$366	$86	1.4%
Peel	2-bed	$500,000	$2,750	$3,314	$564	$217	1.7%
Peel	3-bed	$508,000	$3,200	$3,556	$356	about $0	1.2%
Halton	1-bed	$436,500	$2,200	$2,763	$563	$257	1.9%
Halton	2-bed	$560,000	$2,700	$3,545	$845	$459	2.1%
Durham	1-bed	$410,000	$2,100	$2,750	$650	$360	2.2%
Durham	2-bed	$485,000	$2,600	$3,306	$706	$368	2.1%

*Out of pocket vs. rent, minus the part of your mortgage payment that pays down your loan (equity you keep), plus land transfer tax and legal fees spread over 5 years, plus the return your down payment could have earned elsewhere (3.5% a year). **How much prices need to rise each year for buying to beat renting after 5 years: when you sell, you have more money than if you had rented and kept your down payment invested. Includes selling costs of 5% commission plus HST. 3-bedroom is shown only where there were at least 20 sales and the 3-bed price was above the 2-bed price.

How to read it

One-bedroom: after the equity you build, buying costs $86 a month more than renting in Peel, up to $367 in Toronto. Out of pocket, you would pay $366 to $650 a month more than your rent. The real cost is lower than that because $618 to $750 of each month's mortgage payment pays down your loan, and that part stays yours.

Two-bedroom: the real extra cost runs from $217 a month in Peel to $568 in Toronto.

The real question is prices. Buying beats renting after 5 years if prices rise more than 1.2% to 2.3% a year, depending on area and size. For context: GTA condo prices are up 42% since 2016 (about 3.6% a year on average), but not in a straight line. They peaked in 2022 and have fallen 24% since. I can't promise what the next five years will look like, and neither can anyone else.

How long you stay matters. Land transfer tax is paid once, so a longer stay spreads it thinner. For a Toronto 1-bed, staying 10 years instead of 5 lowers the real extra cost from $367 to $147 a month.

What the monthly numbers leave out: any change in price and the cost of selling (both are in the price-rise column), and moving costs.

Your number

Run your own numbers, with your area, unit size, rent, down payment and rate, on the calculator page: Rent vs. own calculator. It shows what buying would cost you each month compared with your rent, and how much prices would need to rise for buying to beat renting.

Want it for your building, not the average?

Email me your building or postal code, the unit size you want (1-bed, 2-bed) and your current rent, and I will send you recent sales of that unit size in your building, with the ownership cost worked out at today's rates. No form, just a reply.

Alex Trokoz, Real Estate Agent, Property.ca Inc., Brokerage
647.818.2995 · alextrokoz@property.ca

Source: TRREB data via Habistat (condo apartment medians, Aug to Oct 2026, and average condo prices) and TRREB Rental Market Report. Estimates for planning, not a mortgage quote.